Where to Live: Short, mid and long term

I'm continuing to spend unhealthy amounts of time speculating about my living arrangements when I return to Boston. I checked in with Judy (my former landlady) to determine the upcoming status of her tenants; she said the people currently living on the third floor (my former digs) are moving out at the end of May. However, that won't work with my schedule--unless, for some reason, somebody needs a two-bedroom Cambridge apartment for June through December this year. So, I'll likely be renting in the Cambridge-Somerville area, relatively close to Porter Square.

In the middle term, as I mentioned earlier, I am considering buying in Somerville, in the area of the proposed Green Line extension. Mapping software helped me start to narrow down my search, by adding various data points to the map: walking distances, proposed subway stops, etc. I needed some background metrics to scale my distances: for instance, the walk from the Roost to either Porter or Davis is about a half mile (narrow red lines). The twenty-minute walk I do to school every day is about a mile, and I would be happy doing a walk like that as a commute. My company is opening an office in Somerville near Porter, so that forms the basis of the 1-mile radius circle (shown in blue).


I then cross-referenced this map with a map of rental prices in Somerville, from the Somerville Transportation Equity Partnership website. Assuming that rental prices and property prices follow similar trends, it seems like the area near Highland is pretty promising. I do have some worries about being stuck in a wasteland for many years before gentrification starts to set in; the next step would be walking around areas of the map, to see how they look nowadays. Of course, there are a lot of 'what ifs' here, including when the Green Line extension actually happens, where the stops are placed, whether I end up in a comfortable rental situation, and the state of the housing market.

Speaking of which, the current news ("New Home Sales Plummet in February") suggests the bubble is notably slowing down, and actually contracting. Not surprisingly, the Economist called it pretty accurately in June 2005: "It is impossible to predict when prices will turn. Yet turn they will. Prices are already sliding in Australia and Britain. America's housing market may be a year or so behind." Sounds like a good time to wait it out, and see what happens.

Incidentally, does anyone understand the housing market and mortgages enough to answer this question: (and this is coming from someone who listens to Marketplace all the time): to a homebuyer, in terms of overall cost, will a drop in house prices typically get eaten up by the (usual) associated rise in interest rates? Has anyone seen good calculations or trend projections? I assume it might depend on the type of mortgage, down payment, etc. My Google-Fu was weak, given that having 'mortgage' in your search field causes a major increase in spam factor. I'm mostly just wondering whether looking forward to a drop in net housing prices is just fooling myself or not, given the conflicting effects of price and interest rates.

Finally, in the very long term, another article on global warming gave me general pause ("Climate Data Hint at Irreversible Rise in Seas"):

One team, using computer models of climate and ice, found that by about 2100, average temperatures could be four degrees higher than today and that over the coming centuries, the oceans could rise 13 to 20 feet.

I've long ago digested the whole global warming-rising sea levels relationship: check out these maps showing the effects of sea level rise from the Nova/Frontline documentary "What's Up with the Weather?" But thinking about buying property makes you ponder the long-term viability of a location. I actually bothered to briefly look up Somerville elevations; Google gave me answers from 12 to 46 feet. Also, there's an EPA website that has some cool maps. However, it's all a bit irrelevant: does it matter that your first floor is above water if your basement, not to mention everything that makes Boston a great town, is flooded? Based on that map, it seems like a 1.5 meter/5 foot rise in sea levels would wipe out the Back Bay, the Institvte, Logan Airport, and Revere Beach.

As a final note, the idea of living in a city that I love, with easy access to mass transit, and a great job within walking distance sounds just too ideal to be true. Perhaps my sights are a bit low—many people would point my lack of getting hooked up as a great big negative. However, I have to return to my zero-sum world philosophy—if one portion of my life sucks that much, the rest of it should be pretty good to make up for it. It's like Click and Clack's French car ownership theory: the massive misery caused by the maintenance, breakdowns, and strandings from owning a French car means that the rest of your life will be pleasant and stress-free. It feels like tipping that balance, by adding one more positive item, would tempt karma to piss in my Cheerios.

Then again, I could probably find someone who makes me miserable, and that should keep it all in balance. Heh.